17 November 2007

the party IS over

as with most of the pressing issues of our time, no amount of not thinking about this will make it go away. we need to be prepared for what this means for us as a society. i'm posting a guest blog today, written by a friend that has been in the oil industry for a very long time- we've had many a convo about peak oil over the years. you can find him on myspace.
inform yourself and pass it along:


Peak Oil & Energy Discussion Board


We are now flirting with $100 oil yet as a society we dont have any kind of energy game plan. After lots of posturing, Congress will have nothing for an energy bill this session, just as they've had nothing for each previous year. None of the Presidential candidates have any real energy policy programs. Its important for you to understand what this means. Our way of life is about to change dramatically for the worse. YOU need to properly understand the fundamentals at hand and act accordingly. Since 2005, its been evident we've entered a new era of oil depletion. After global oil growth rates of 3-4% most of our lives, take a look at this chart:

Recognize what this means. With the incentive of +$50, then $60, then $70, then $80 and now +$90 oil, global output has fallen. Its not an oil company conspiracy. We, especially Americans, are voraciously consuming past the ability of the system to supply oil. We are up against the limits to growth. We are near or at peak oil.

Peak oil doesn't mean we are fast running out of oil. It means we have roughly as much oil to consume in the future as we have consumed in the past. But before you get complacent, peak oil also means:
1) We can no longer grow oil supplies which I think means we can no longer grow the economy. There's too much societal debt predicated on more economic growth. This alone will be economically catastrophic. Take heed.
2) The market power shifts from the oil buyers to the oil producers.

To restate the obvious, there are extensive oil reserves. We're at the peak. We roughly have just as much oil to produce as we've pumped in the past. But at the peak the power shifts from the consumers to the still prolific producers. So does the money. They can jerk us around without much recourse. There's no longer energy growth alternatives. The Saudis, with the collusion of their ARAMCO partners, will throttle back and make a killing. Dan Yergin will come out and say 'its not geologic constraints its political. We weren't wrong.'

We all got duped but what are we gonna do about it now? This so called 'free market' approach to resource allocation sure served them well. The free market richly rewards those with still prolific production up and over the peak. Its too bad they are now most adversaries to the U.S. The oil wars will rage on. Too bad.

3) At and over the peak, the propensity for oil wars escalates. Its why we are building a $1b super-fortress embassy and permanent military bases in Iraq.

"...the more you understand peak oil fundamentals the more you know Iraq was about oil. The propensity for oil wars accelerates up and over the peak. Those that embrace the B.S. reasons for going into Iraq...weapons...911...democracy seem to also lack any real grasp of peak oil. They also are the ones who incorrectly think free markets and more domestic drilling will solve this energy problem.

The prudent post-911 response should have been highlighting and addressing our dangerous dependency on imported, especially Mideast oil. Instead they opted for an invasion of Iraq. It was about oil and its important to recognize, as we cruise around in our SUVs, is we are now on the wrong side of the energy equation and post-peak is going to smack us hard."

Here's some significant archived reading on whats unfolding with peak oil: Important Archived Peak Oil Threads. and check back on the main Petroboard. Its going to get volatile and interesting. Take heed.

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